D3VolleyballStats · CORA rankings
2026 season · through October 8, 2026

D3 Volleyball Rankings

CORA rates every Division III team from every rally of every match, adjusted for the strength of each opponent and each conference. It isn't a vote, and it isn't a formula of wins and losses. Below the rankings, we show in the open how well it predicts matches compared with the rankings people already use.

81.7%
of 13,458 D3 matches called before they were played · 2024–2026
68%
right when CORA and the NCAA Power Index (NPI) disagree on who's better: 1,371 to 634
5 for 5
other rating systems beaten head-to-head, every season, every gap statistically significant
81.7%
2026 so far · 2,748 matches · retested daily

CORA Top 50

Ranked by CORA: the share of rallies each team would win against an average D3 team, from 3,265 matches this season, starting from last season and fading it out as this season's results arrive. Click a column to sort. AVCA: Oct. 6 AVCA-Taraflex Division III WVB Poll.

1Wis.-OshkoshWIAC17–163.1%±1.11
2Wesleyan (CT)NESCAC12–062.4%±1.47
3AuroraNACC18–262.4%±1.1RV
4Ill. WesleyanCCIW15–162.2%±1.12
5WashUUAA12–362.2%±1.210
6CentreSAA13–162.1%±1.28
7Northwestern-St. PaulUMAC11–462.0%±1.3—
8Wis.-Eau ClaireWIAC10–361.7%±1.24
9BerrySAA12–361.4%±1.211
10Wash. & LeeODAC11–261.4%±1.4RV
11Carnegie MellonUAA17–160.8%±1.13
12DubuqueAmerican Rivers16–460.7%±1.017
13Bethel (MN)MIAC16–460.6%±1.1—
14St. OlafMIAC13–560.4%±1.1RV
15OtterbeinOAC15–360.3%±1.020
16Colorado Col.SCAC11–260.3%±1.3—
17Pacific LutheranNWC13–260.2%±1.3RV
18WartburgAmerican Rivers14–560.2%±1.1—
19IthacaLiberty League12–360.1%±1.212
20ColbyNESCAC10–260.1%±1.39
21UChicagoUAA16–160.0%±1.113
22JuniataLandmark8–359.8%±1.46
23Southwestern (TX)SAA12–559.8%±1.1—
24NYUUAA12–459.8%±1.119
25CalvinMichigan Intercol. ath. assn.12–259.6%±1.214
26EmoryUAA8–459.6%±1.421
27Wis.-PlattevilleWIAC14–459.6%±1.1RV
28CarthageCCIW14–559.5%±1.0RV
29TuftsNESCAC11–559.5%±1.2RV
30BabsonNEWMAC12–259.5%±1.318
31HopeMichigan Intercol. ath. assn.11–559.5%±1.2RV
32Buena VistaAmerican Rivers14–059.4%±1.4—
33East Tex. BaptistASC12–459.2%±1.216
34CMSSCIAC7–759.2%±1.2—
35MITNEWMAC13–159.2%±1.25
36Trinity (TX)SAA10–559.1%±1.215
37BattenODAC15–359.1%±1.1—
38WhittierSCIAC13–459.1%±1.1—
39FranklinHCAC15–359.0%±1.2—
40WhitworthNWC11–259.0%±1.3—
41RowanNJAC15–258.7%±1.2—
42Gustavus AdolphusMIAC12–458.7%±1.1RV
43William SmithLiberty League11–358.7%±1.3RV
44HeidelbergOAC16–358.7%±1.2—
45UW-River FallsWIAC11–458.6%±1.2—
46DePauwNCAC11–458.6%±1.2—
47StevensMAC Freedom14–258.5%±1.2RV
48Puget SoundNWC8–658.5%±1.3—
49EdgewoodNACC13–458.4%±1.1RV
50CovenantCCS15–258.3%±1.2—

This week: CORA's odds

Every D3 match in the next seven days, with CORA's chance for the favorite and its most likely score. These are honest odds, not locks: favorites CORA gives 75% win about three times in four, and in 2025 about 10 D3 favorites of 80–90% lost every week. Showing the 21 matches between two top-50 teams.

Match
#2 Wesleyan (CT)at#20 ColbyWesleyan (CT) 65%
likely 3–1
Fri, Oct 9
7:00 PM ET
#31 Hopeat#8 Wis.-Eau ClaireWis.-Eau Claire 75%
likely 3–1
Fri, Oct 9
8:00 PM ET
#40 Whitworthat#17 Pacific LutheranPacific Lutheran 68%
likely 3–1
Fri, Oct 9
10:00 PM ET
#1 Wis.-Oshkoshat#31 HopeWis.-Oshkosh 76%
likely 3–1
Sat, Oct 10
1:00 PM ET
#30 Babsonat#34 CMSCMS 55%
likely 3–1
Sat, Oct 10
2:00 PM ET
#1 Wis.-Oshkoshat#42 Gustavus AdolphusWis.-Oshkosh 81%
likely 3–0
Sat, Oct 10
5:00 PM ET
#36 Trinity (TX)at#23 Southwestern (TX)Southwestern (TX) 63%
likely 3–1
Sat, Oct 10
6:00 PM ET
#42 Gustavus Adolphusat#8 Wis.-Eau ClaireWis.-Eau Claire 80%
likely 3–0
Sat, Oct 10
7:00 PM ET
#40 Whitworthat#48 Puget SoundPuget Sound 52%
likely 3–1
Sat, Oct 10
9:00 PM ET
#11 Carnegie Mellonat#24 NYUCarnegie Mellon 53%
likely 3–1
Sun, Oct 11
12:00 PM ET
#26 Emoryat#11 Carnegie MellonCarnegie Mellon 67%
likely 3–1
Sun, Oct 11
2:00 PM ET
#21 UChicagoat#5 WashUWashU 75%
likely 3–1
Sun, Oct 11
3:00 PM ET
#27 Wis.-Plattevilleat#49 EdgewoodWis.-Platteville 54%
likely 3–1
Tue, Oct 13
8:00 PM ET
#19 Ithacaat#43 William SmithIthaca 57%
likely 3–1
Wed, Oct 14
6:30 PM ET
#15 Otterbeinat#44 HeidelbergOtterbein 59%
likely 3–1
Wed, Oct 14
7:00 PM ET
#14 St. Olafat#8 Wis.-Eau ClaireWis.-Eau Claire 68%
likely 3–1
Wed, Oct 14
8:00 PM ET
#23 Southwestern (TX)at#9 BerryBerry 71%
likely 3–1
Fri, Oct 16
5:00 PM ET
#46 DePauwat#21 UChicagoUChicago 69%
likely 3–1
Fri, Oct 16
7:00 PM ET
#29 Tuftsat#2 Wesleyan (CT)Wesleyan (CT) 80%
likely 3–0
Fri, Oct 16
7:00 PM ET
#36 Trinity (TX)at#6 CentreCentre 80%
likely 3–0
Fri, Oct 16
7:30 PM ET
#8 Wis.-Eau Claireat#27 Wis.-PlattevilleWis.-Eau Claire 63%
likely 3–1
Fri, Oct 16
8:00 PM ET

Odds update with every result, several times a day; the last pregame odds are kept for every match.

Who calls it better?

Every ranking is a claim about who's better. We test them the fair way: replay each season one day at a time, predict every match using only what happened before it, and keep score. Every system is scored on the same matches. Log loss scores the confidence as well as the pick: calling a team a 90% favorite and losing costs far more than calling it 55% and losing. Lower is better; a coin flip scores 0.693.

All 3 seasons together (2024, 2025, 2026): 13,458 matches

SystemLog lossBetter than a coin flipPicked the winnerCross-conference log lossSeasons CORA beat it (p < .01)
CORA (ours)
Every rally, adjusted for opponents and conference strength
0.395
43%
81.7%0.421
Pablo-style
Replica built from Pablo's published method: point share, capped, 42-day fade
0.434
37%
79.9%0.4733 of 3
Massey
Point margin, least squares (1997 method)
0.448
35%
80.4%0.5023 of 3
Sets only
Sets won and lost
0.458
34%
78.0%0.5063 of 3
Wins only
Wins and losses only: the information the RPI and NPI use
0.488
30%
75.8%0.5253 of 3
Elo with margin
Wins scaled by margin, match by match (FiveThirtyEight style)
0.508
27%
74.4%0.5433 of 3

Rankings without win chances

The NPI and the coaches' poll only rank teams, so the test is simpler: did the better-ranked team win? CORA is scored on exactly the same matches. Where the two rankings disagree, McNemar's test says whether the difference is bigger than luck.

RankingMatchesIts higher-ranked team wonCORA, same matchesWhere they disagreedSignificance
NCAA Power Index (our calculation)13,41675.9%81.4%CORA right 1371, theirs right 634p < .001
AVCA coaches poll1,42883.9%84.8%CORA right 67, theirs right 54p = .275 (not yet significant)

The coaches' poll ranks only 25 teams, so far fewer matches separate it from CORA. It takes several seasons of disagreements to tell the two apart; this test grows every week.

Season by season

SystemLog lossBetter than a coin flipPicked the winnerCross-conference log lossvs. CORA
CORA (ours)
Every rally, adjusted for opponents and conference strength
0.385
44%
81.7%0.396
Pablo-style
Replica built from Pablo's published method: point share, capped, 42-day fade
0.450
35%
78.9%0.475CORA better, p < .001
Massey
Point margin, least squares (1997 method)
0.480
31%
79.2%0.519CORA better, p < .001
Sets only
Sets won and lost
0.484
30%
76.0%0.516CORA better, p < .001
Wins only
Wins and losses only: the information the RPI and NPI use
0.520
25%
72.9%0.548CORA better, p < .001
Elo with margin
Wins scaled by margin, match by match (FiveThirtyEight style)
0.540
22%
71.8%0.562CORA better, p < .001

2,748 matches between D3 teams, September 1, 2026 to October 7, 2026, each predicted using only matches played before it. CORA started from the season before.

RankingMatchesIts higher-ranked team wonCORA, same matchesWhere they disagreedSignificance
NCAA Power Index (our calculation)
Every match between D3 teams, ranked from results before that day.
2,73173.9%82.0%CORA right 344, theirs right 123p < .001
AVCA coaches poll
Matches with at least one ranked team, using the poll out before the match (unranked counts below every ranked team).
22680.1%79.2%CORA right 12, theirs right 14p = .845 (not yet significant)

This season's results update every day as matches are played (last run Oct 8, 5:10 PM CT).

How CORA works

Why not the NPI?

The NPI only knows who won. It can't tell a 3–0 rout from a 3–2 escape, and it judges a schedule by opponents' win percentages, so a weak conference that beats up on itself looks stronger than it is. That's why it misses the matches that are actually in doubt. It's the NCAA's tool for picking a tournament field from results; CORA's job is to tell you who's better.

How we test it

Pablo is tested as a replica built from its published method, because its site doesn't allow automated access. The NPI is our calculation of the NCAA formula with the D3 volleyball committee's published settings (20/80, quality-win base 55.5); it matches the NCAA's published values to within about 0.2 points. CORA was built and first tested on Division II; the full methodology has every ingredient and what each one adds.